EDITOR:
It came to my attention last week that there was an updated jail inmate population report: Inmate Population Trends and Projections, dated April 2023, an update from 2019. Could there be an even more recent update that the commission has not shared?
One would expect this critical piece of information to be front and center on the commission’s jail information site as it supports the jail expansion, but it’s not. I found it under the Get Involved/Important Links section of the county site.
A table of inmate population projections can be found on page 34 of this report. Of importance is that the jail expert’s future inmate counts differ significantly from those used in the financial projection. Page 37 of this report states, “The 2019 study concluded…and still applies…Platte County will need a total of 373 beds to support an ADP (average daily population) of 317 inmates in 2038.”
A question I raised in an earlier letter is why the financial projection assumes full occupancy so quickly: 480 inmates; 102% occupancy; in 2036. The jail expert projects 301 inmates in 2036; his table ends in 2038 with 317 inmates. The fact that someone didn’t notice an inmate count 59% higher than that of the jail expert is cause for concern.
To illustrate how this affects projected expenses, consider inmate health insurance costs, which are based on inmate counts. I calculate that this projected expense line item is overstated by at least $16 million.
It’s interesting that the commission hires a jail expert to project inmate population, hires a financial advisor to prepare a financial projection model, and the financial advisor then appears to ignore the information provided by the jail expert.
The commission wants the public to believe that they have thoroughly vetted this information and to rely on the financial projection. As a result of this new information as well as earlier findings, it is my view that the financial projection is unreliable.
The more I dig, the worse it gets. This is an embarrassment to Platte County.
--Gordon Cook
Parkville
