A GRADUAL DROP PROJECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 YEARS
The 2024-2025 Demographic Profile and Enrollment Projections report for the Park Hill School District provides an in depth analysis of student enrollment trends, demographic shifts, and future projections.
This report is designed to aid district stakeholders—including school administrators, community members, and policymakers—in making informed decisions related to budgeting, facility planning, and long-term educational strategies.
Key findings within this report include:
Current Enrollment Trends. Park Hill School District’s K-12 enrollment peaked at 11,707 students in 2019-2020 and has since experienced a gradual decline, reaching 11,573 in 2023-2024.
Enrollment projections indicate a continued decrease over the next decade, with enrollment expected to decline to approximately 11,076 by 2035-2036.
Demographic Shifts. While the total population of the district has grown, the proportion of school-aged children (ages 5-17) has slightly declined, reflecting an aging population. Census data from 2010 to 2020 shows a population increase of 12,043 residents, while the school-aged population grew at a slower rate of 15.5%.
The student yield rate (percentage of school-aged children enrolled in the district) has been gradually decreasing, currently projected at 81.5% in 2024-2025, down from 88.0% in 2009-2010.
Enrollment Projection Models. Five independent models were used to project future enrollment, incorporating data from historical trends, cohort survival rates, census projections, and housing development patterns. The most conservative model (Model 3 – Cohort Survival Rates & Kindergarten Pools) projects 10,736 students by 2035, while the highest projection (Model 2 – US Census & Student Yield Ratios) estimates 11,548 students.
The median projection anticipates approximately 11,400 students by 2035, indicating a gradual but manageable decline in enrollment.
Housing and Household Data. The number of households in the district has grown by 15.6% over the past decade, increasing from 30,214 (2014-2015) to 34,936 (2024-2025). Despite this growth, the average number of students per household has decreased, suggesting demographic shifts, smaller family sizes, and alternative education choices such as private schools and homeschooling.
