EDITOR:
So….I received a mailer from the Platte County Commission “Know before you go!” about the reason (they say facts) we need before voting on the 20 year half cent sales tax for jail expansion on Aug. 6. I looked up overall statistics and compared them with Platte County’s actuals and projections.
·The US population in 2021 was 336,997,624
·Platte County’s population in 2021 was 110,534
·The number of incarcerated people in local and county jails at that time in the U.S. was 636,300 (Bureau of Justice Statistics)
This is an incarceration rate of .0019 percent
Using Platte County’s 2021 population, Platte County should show 210 inmates – using national averages. Platte County’s actual, per the flyer sent to me, was 203 – so far so good.
·Platte County population specific growth rate is at about 1.5% annually. This would yield the following compounded populations for Platte County:
2031 = 126,383
2041 = 146,673
2048 = 162,784
The county flyer looks like around 140,000+ for 2050. Maybe the county has more precise projections for the county than what the state has published? But using MSA projections, we get a higher number and we will error to the higher number population.
So. .. if we apply the incarceration rate of .0019 against 162,784, in 20 years we need 309 beds for the county total. Not 500 by 2048 like the county is saying.
It is understandable that we need to plan for capacity growth over the next 30 years. Good management practices would tell you to get approval for capital to build for your planned capacity needs at the lower fixed costs now and hold your variable costs in check until needed.
However, an overbuild of 30% in fixed cost capacity is not needed or prudent. Why are we contemplating this overbuild of capacity?
Gordon Cook does a great job of analyzing and pointing out the financial gaps in the “how” of this project. My math questions the premise of the “why” we should do the project as proposed.
--David Copas
Platte City